The Fate of America's Economy

The history has shown us that economic and political giants, which conquered the world at one time, could be destroyed and humiliated on the other time.



Roman Empire is the greatest and the biggest empire in the world on the first century. It was destroyed and divided into several kingdoms and empires by the fifth century.



VOC was the biggest trading company in the world on the second half of the 17th century. It filed for bankruptcy just a day before the 1800 New Year.



And now, i'm afraid that for several years ahead, we'll see that the United States of America economy, which have been the world's economic hegemony for hundreds of years are going to a tragic, humiliating bankruptcy. The worst part is that i have enough reasons to worry.



The first, it has great amount of liabilties while having their money being pumped away from their coffers. Based on US National Debt Clock (Jul 26th 2009, c.01.49 pm), the US Federal Government has an outstanding liabilities of $ 11,6 trillion, thus make every person in America owe almost $38 000. The Federal Government said that they have predicted the 2009 federal budget deficit for $2 trillion, the worst deficit since the inception of the Republic.



The second, the USA has announced that they will pump another trillions to the financial system. Based on August Bloomberg Market Magazine, this will accounted to the grand federal stimulus program, thus make it worth more than $13 trillion, almost the same with 2008 USA GDP



The third, they also have a future potential obligations (the liabilities outside the balance sheet) for more than $70 trillion in Medicare, Medicaid, and other welfare programs for the retired-would-be baby boomers. Stop here. This is one of the worst nightmare in the economic history. When you accumulate these effects with future trends of decreasing amount of workforces, over-saturated economic system, lack of strong and effective America's counterpart economies (eventhough China will significantly help us), and USA's influence in world's economic system, this will make the world's greatest economic disaster, far worse than the 1929.



The question is, why is it so important for us, the fast-growing emerging market working, middle, and upper class people? And how about China?



Well, eventhough we're "immune" from 2008-2009 economic crisis, the things will not go the same way for this case. This is about the federal debt, and they have to and must pay it. And as explained first, they have shortage of money. If they can't generate enough cash from taxes and international trades to pay general expenses, let alone the things "paying debts". On the other hands, China and Middle East will questioned America's good will and leave them away if America can't pay the debt. The only way is to print as much money as possible, or to freeze the debt without agreement with the lenders, as Argentina had done several years ago.



Dump the second alternative. America is a capitalist economy, and they can't betray the principles by freezing the debt. But hey, the America's biggest lenders is their own people! So if American is willingly writing-off the debt of their government, America can endure and regain their strength to pay the debt.



But still, that option is nearly unviable. The most possible solving is the printing-money things. But if they do that things, the result is hyperinflation, thus hurts the Americans spending power, reducing imports, slows the exports from developing economies and economic partners, hurts the local economies, increasing bankruptcies filing, make unemployment rate rises, decreasing spending powers worldwide. The spiralling effect is hard to be healed.



And China? For years ahead, China will stay to be a producer country and not a consumer one like America, except for raw materials. It's hard for China to absorb the things that should be exported to America, and China will not be as helpful as we've expected, eventhough their help will be significant.



And what should we do? Be prepared, and be ready to get a profit from it, if you know how to get it.

Empat Orang Asing dan Perumpamaan Seorang Penabur

Ketika Yesus sedang menceritakan perumpamaan tentang seorang penabur, empat orang datang karena tertarik dengan apa yang diajarkan Yesus pada orang banyak tersebut.

Setelah selesai mengajar para murid, keempat orang itu datang kepada Yesus dan berkata,"Guru, kami ingin menjadi seperti benih yang jatuh di tanah yang baik. Bantulah kami, ya Guru."
Yesus berkata,"Pergilah dan peliharalah firman yang telah kuberikan kepadamu."

Orang yang pertama adalah seorang sida-sida dari tanah Persia. Ketika ia berpaling hendak menyebarkan kabar baik yang diterimanya, seorang pengemis datang kepadanya. Ia menjadi berang dan menghardik pengemis tersebut. Ia lalu segera melupakan ajaran Yesus dan kembali berdosa.

Pengemis itu hanya tersenyum.

Orang kedua adalah seorang pedagang dari Tarsis. Ia terkesan akan ajaran Yesus dan langsung menyebarkan kabar baik yang diterimanya. Ketika ia berada di antara kumpulan orang Yahudi dan ia pun mulai dicobai. Imannya pun goyah dan ia akhirnya menyangkal ajarn yang Yesus berikan. Seorang misterius datang dan mendengarkan pembicaraan mereka.

Ia hanya tersenyum. Tapi ada sedikit raut kecewa dalam mukanya.

Orang ketiga adalah seorang pejabat Romawi di tanah Yehuda. Ia takjub mendengar perkataan Yesus. Ia lalu pergi dan hendak menyebarkannya pada sesama pegawai pemerintah. Ia pun dicobai dengan harta yang melimpah dan berbagai kenikmatan duniawi lainnya. Awalnya, ia menolak, tetapi lama kelamaan imannya luntur dan ia kembali pada hal-hal duniawi. Seorang pegawai baru melihatnya disuap oleh para Imam-imam kepala dan merayu seorang wanita untuk tidur bersamanya.

Pegawai itu hanya tersenyum, tapi senyumnya menjadi lirih.


Orang keempat adalah seorang budak yang baru dibebaskan oleh tuannya. Ia lalu mencoba menyimpan ajaran Kristus di hatinya. Ia mulai menyebarkan firman yang ia terima, dan lama-kelamaan orang banyak menjadi percaya pada Kristus. Di antara orang banyak itu, ada seorang misterius menghampiri dirinya. Orang itu datang berseri-seri. Ketika melihat wajah orang tersebut, sang budak yang telah dimerdekakan tersebut takjub dan langsung sujud menyembah.

"Guru, bagaiman kau ada di sini?" katanya
"Itu tidak penting, tetapi aku senang melihat benih itu telah tumbuh," kata Yesus
"Benih apa, Guru?" katanya
"Benih itu adalah firman yang telah kautanam dalam hatimu. Aku telah menabur benih itu pada empat di antaramu, tetapi hanya benih yang kutabur padamu yang jatuh di tanah yang baik. Mereka boleh saja berkomitmen, tetapi engkaulah satu-satunya yang menerapkannya dalam hidupmu sehari-hari."

Bekas budak dan orang-orang tersebut lalu menyaksikan Yesus pergi, lalu duduk dan merenungkan apa yang telah didengarnya tadi.

Indonesian and Education

When i was on the way to my cousins' house, my mom asked us to hear a Saturday radio program in Smart FM (95.9FM, Jakarta) called "Indonesian Strong From Home" by Ayah Edy. The topic of the day is about changing our perspective toward learning.

Actually, the weekly program is designated for adults, but I don't care any of that thing

One of the biggest issue in today's topic is about why most of Indonesian children can't go forward. He said that it's not the child's fault at all, but it happened mostly because adults couldn't find a good way to teach the children. Our school system is designated not to develop the genious of every children, but it only repeat and repeat what we had learnt and discovered before. He also quoted what Edison said about education, "education is to innovate and modify what we had discovered before, and not repeat and forced someone to memorize what we had discovered before. So our way to educate youngsters, in the eyes of Edison(and some of the other genious) is practically wrong.

He also noted 4 ways of learning, based on their personality (sanguine, choleric, phlegmatic, and melancholic) and some of other things. The point of today's program is, that children need different approach from one to another, and that's the first key to give our generation a good education. It's our obligation to know the child's (or our) way to learn, and learn with that way.

The program lasted for 2 hour (10 am-12 noon) and I started to discuss what i had heard before with my mom, my dad, and my sister. It's so worthwhile to discuss that I didn't realize that I'd arrived.

The first and the foremost thing of education, for me, is that I'm assured to get what I deserve to learn and what I have to learn. As a student, I agree of what Ayah Edy said before and I've faced a lot of struggle in my study. Indeed, I need a calm-but-not-quiet and supporting environment to discover something, also a capable and debatable teacher to discover something, and I rarely found this in my school.

But what I bear in my mind the most of education topic is that I'm afraid of Indonesia's quality of educator. People, and the way of approaching and teaching is the most important thing of education, and we know that Indonesia now face a shortage of this kind of educator. We had a lost generation in our country, and they're teaching our generation, the leader of the future, with an old, orthodox approach that has proven ineffective. The greatest fear of this nation is not about struggling macroeconomic, corrupt political and governmental system, but about the potential of the future "lost generation", with educational, moral, and ethical problem. This is the biggest problem we should address, and this is not only about raising the education budget, but it's about the people and the system.

We have to start to humanize ourselves, and we shall educate ourselves with the way genius educate themselves. Because everyone of us is born genius, God gave us unique talents and education is to raise them, and process them so we can face the challenge of the future. And the challenge of the future can only be solved by modify and innovate what we had discovered before, and not only by memorize what we had discovered.

Dealing the Holiday Time

When I entered my holiday time, I thought that I could spend the time with great amusement and joy. But it only took less than a week before I started to get bored with my holiday. Why? just see my timetable for the last 5 days, maybe will be continued for the next few days.

06.30 wake up in the morning. still sleepy around this time
07.00 have a breakfast. Always with my bread and sometimes with tea. Also read the newspaper (consists of mostly 'bad' news and few 'good' news, such as the bull run of Dow Jones)
07.30 sports time! sometimes solitaire, because my neighbors haven't entered the holiday yet. Alternative? Sometimes I spent it with doing chores, such as lawn mowing.
09.00 wanna use the internet, but the computer is already occupied with my beloved sister, Esther. use my phone instead for browsing.
10.00 bath time!
10.15 start to implement my imagination on the paper. My drawing is usually much worse than i imagine :(
11.00 Take a nap
12.00 Lunch time. With fish as usual.
13.00 Another nap
15.00 Browsing the internet
16.00 Walking around my neighborhood, or play with my neighbors
17.30 Yes, another nap
18.00 Browsing the internet, or sometimes see the news on Metro TV
19.00 Dinner time!
20.00 Browsing the internet, or simply read the newspapers that was brought from my mom's office.
21.00 Sit down and relaxed, read something to kill the time, or discuss the news with my father while the computer is used by my mom or my sister
23.00 Take over the internet again, checking my facebook account for the last time.
23.30 Sleep.

The surprise is that the time I spend to watch TV everyday during this week is only 2 hours/day, decreased from what i used to, 3 hours/day! Why? Because most of Indonesian TV's programs sucks (I'm sorry), especially the sinetron and so-called infotainment programs.

So whaddaya say? Any idea for my holiday time? Please give me one! Just leave a comment below.

Hi There!

Welcome to my new blog!

Actually, this is not my first blog (the first is just, not good). The purpose of this blog is just to replace the old one (I've delete that one).

If you've something new to be posted here, just send it via e-mail to brb_alvin94@yahoo or alvin_bzzz@hotmail

New posting will come soon!